It's a waste to spend too much time hunting for the absolute highest EV opportunity you can. Don't make bets where a push is possible! You will get back $450 if team A wins, and $380 plus a $100 freebet (estimated to be worth $70) if team B wins. You will win $350 regardless of the outcome, but the bets only cost you $280, so your EV is $70.īet $100 on Team A at +350 on book 1, bet $304 on Team B at -400 on book 2. Place the $100 freebet on Team A at +350 on book 1, bet $280 on Team B at -400 on book 2. For a freeplay you just want the payouts to be equal. For a risk free bet that means you need to account for the value of the free play when your hedge bet wins. If you're hedging you want your result to be equal regardless of the outcome. The strategy for a free play and a 'risk free' bet are slightly different. Hedging is essentially 0 variance if you do it right and it's easy to calculate the EV. Technically this isn't the highest EV but I know nothing about sportsbetting which would allow me to select the best wagers for my freeplay. Only up to a point though because the bigger the underdog the higher the vig will usually be. Longer odds are higher EV because you only get the bonus when you lose.
